Why Vote

The Importance of Marginal Seats

The Boundary Commission’s review of constituency boundaries has resulted in a more equitable distribution of votes and, according to the election experts Rallings and Thrasher, Labour will go into the next election campaign with a reduced majority of just under 50.

When that general election is called, it will be won or lost in little more than 100 key marginal constituencies. A marginal seat is simply one where the sitting MP has a small majority. In these seats Labour, the Conservatives and occasionally the Liberal Democrats will fight for the approval of a vital four per cent of ‘swing’ voters’, where the majority is so tight that they could easily fall to a challenging party.

During an election campaign both Mr Brown and Mr Cameron will probably spend much of their time in the marginal seats with current polling suggesting that support for the Conservatives in these target seats is greater than at a national level.

The incumbent MP tends to enjoy a number of advantages over the other candidates: a higher profile than challengers, a powerful “incumbency factor” from a regular profile in local media and the ability to spend public money. Sitting MPs do not have it all their own way however and other factors can impact upon the incumbent’s prospects for reelection: if the local party network is neither energetic nor harmonious, or an unpopular policy has been pushed through in the local area.

One advantage of an early election for Labour would have been to prevent the Conservatives from outspending them in the marginal seats. There have been claims recently that Labour intends to introduce legislation preventing  the Conservative Party from investing millions of pounds in the key marginals. Labour have already attempted to negate this perceived advantage and from April 2007 MPs have been able to spend an additional “communications allowance” of £10,000 a year that can be used for campaigning purposes.

 

Westminster North as a Key Marginal

A number of additional factors suggest that Westminster North will be seen as an important battleground by both Labour and the Conservatives:

• Due to the fact that Regent’s Park and Kensington North was regarded as a safe Labour seat the turnout at the 2005 general election was low, a mere 51.5%.
• People are less likely to vote if they know that their party are going to lose; a disproportionate number of those who failed to vote would have been Conservative supporters. Westminster North’s status as a key marginal will provide a more accurate representation of the levels of support for the parties within the constituency
• Having been chosen early in the standard electoral cycle, Joanne has the opportunity to engage in at least two years of high-profile local activity in Westminster North.  Conservatives hope that this tactic will negate the inherent advantages that the incumbent MP tends to enjoy
• Westminster North’s close proximity to Parliament means that it is likely to attract a large number of high profile MPs during an election campaign ensuring a substantial amount of media attention.